Soralis Weekly [5/22/24]
Disclaimer: We ourselves are also traders and investors. We also execute on most (if not all) of the plays that we share as alpha. Hence, it could also be assumed that we are holders and have a bag of majority of the projects mentioned below.
Disclaimer: All insights and perspectives shared are of our own. Remember that none of this is to be considered “Financial Advice”. We are not to be held liable for any of your investment decisions.
Broader Market Overview:
$BTC: Decision Time.
Last week, we discussed that the drop from 60k was simply deviation from the range. The reclaim confirms bullish sentiment from the market and rejection of lower prices.
That same reclaim also broke our month-long mini downtrend since we topped out previously at around 70k back in April.
This week, we have revisited our local highs and we are hovering just below the resistance. (Orange Zone)
It is decision time for $BTC because if we see continued strength from here and a break of resistance… It means that the consolidation phase has concluded and that the market is ready to aim higher.
Also, keep in mind that when watching for a break in resistance,,, I am monitoring for a break-out with displacement.
Meaning: I am looking for a BIG Candle with VOLUME and a proper close above resistance. (not just some wicks)Above Orange Zone = Sentiment turns giga bullish. Extension and Parabola time.
Below Orange Zone = Sentiment turns bearish and we target 52k.The moment $BTC breaks ATH again and finds some consolidation from there.. You can count on an ALT rally to follow after.
I still believe this is one of the final “accumulation” ranges for $BTC. The longer it accumulates, the more bullish.
$Total3: Total3 is the entire Crypto Market Cap Excluding $BTC, $ETH. It’s a good indicator of what’s happening to the ALT market.
As this is a higher timeframe, the moves will vary much less on a weekly basis.
Last week, we were monitoring from a bounce from dynamic support (which we indeed got).
A bounce from that meant ALTS do not want to go lower = strength.This week, not only did we get the bounce from the trendline but we have also reclaimed our local support at 640B.
Not only that, we are also on our way to targetting the 770B mark which was our high for this cycle. If you think your alts were already valued high back in February, Aim higher.
Especially with the new $ETH ETF news, I’m monitoring a shot at yearly highs. If approved, get ready for things to get silly.
Again, this is a strong sign that ALTS have a long way to go. We are currently more than a 60% gain away from ATH. Price Discovery begins from there.
As $BTC pumps, expect ALTS to follow suit but not with the same strength. As $BTC behaves after the pump, expect ALTS to go parabolic.
One of the best time to get positioned for ALTS are when $BTC has strength and dominance over the market. Because liquidity ALWAYS ends up trickling down to riskier, and riskier asset classes.
$SEI: The catalyst is upon us.
Last week, we discussed the breakdown of local support and we were wondering when the downtrend would be broken.
This week, we broke through the dynamic resistance and retested the local support 0.5$ and held it.
The V2.0 upgrade for $SEI was announced to be live on May 27 which is around 5 days from now.
I am not expecting an insane reaction in price in the lower timeframe. At the end of the day, the chain did not change.
It has always been fast and secure. The team and the community did not change either.So what will change?
EVM compatibility means easier onboarding of $ETH, $ARB, $BASE, $BLAST users, simply due to the dAPPS being so much easier to transfer to our chain.
My expectation is that once v2.0 is live, we should see an inflow of better De-FI and NFT protocols, which theoretically should bring in new volume, activity and liquidity. Which in turn, pushes price higher.Keep in mind though that as long as $BTC and ALT sentiment is bearish, there will be no buyers. Study $BTC Dominance.
While you may be worried that $SEI has crashed to almost 50% of the local highs. We are in the same boat as all the other projects that have performed well in the early bull. ($TIA, $INJ, $DYM, ++)
The rotation will come.
$SEIYAN: One of the first memecoins on $SEI. Definitely our “OG”.
$SEIYAN still looks very attractive from purely an R/R standpoint from here.
Since finding a bottom, we have been on a slow grind upwards, many sellers were already shaken out from the longterm dump since topping out mid-March. ‘
Clear higher highs, clear higher lows. This is the “accumulation stage” and there are only things you should be doing here… Buying or holding.
Still 200% down from ATH screams undervalued to me. Especially considering that they will be the first memecoin of the first parallelized EVM.
$SEIYAN is still the most commonly known beta play to $SEI so expect price action to follow suit of the mother chain while we wait for v2.0 to bring in the liquidity that we are looking for.
When rotators want exposure to the red chain, they will be looking for the top and first memecoin. Why not frontrun them?
$MILLI: The fastest dog on $SEI. “The People’s Meme”
Since bottoming out when April began, we’ve been ranging inside the consolidation zone for almost a month now.
Last week, we broke down from that consolidation range and apparently, sell pressure isn’t as finished as I thought.
I do think that we have hit a point of seller exhaustion which is why I still think that $MILLI is still a good bid from here.
MILLI is definitely a riskier play compared to $SEIYAN simply because of the lower mcap and less popularity. It depends on your risk appetite on which you choose as your SEI beta.
$MILLI is a 1400% pump away from ATH meaning it has a much higher upside but $SEIYAN still has more recognition and momentum as of now. I personally believe both bets are a good beta play to $SEI.
Remember that all our memes and jpegs are leveraged bets on the $SEI ecosystem. No rallies will be made if $SEI disappoints. You should bid only if you believe in the future of $SEI.
NFT Market Overview:
Following the mini-run we’ve had from the NFT cycle back in Jan-Feb. Our ecosystem’s volume has still been in a downtrend while waiting for $SEI v2. There’s still a lack of activity and outside buy pressure for our jpegs.
No updates here — volume and activity are still extremely low.
To put it into perspective, in the week of Jan 26, we managed 57.6k Sales on Pallet Exchange..
This week, we had 1.79k sales.
The data is unmistakable: there’s a visible drop in interest and activity within our ecosystem, leading to a significant decrease in buyers.
It definitely stings to see this dip in volume, but markets go through cycles, and currently, the liquidity is just not in our space.
You might see this as a reason to be bearish. I see it as a sign that we’re still in the early stages.
Instead of getting discouraged and turning bearish, view this as an opportunity. It’s the perfect time to establish your positions and begin accumulating.
Warren Buffet and every other trader and investor didn’t get rich by buying tops. They got rich by buying bottoms.
Top Collections still taking up majority of 7D trading volume.
Alive1111 is back to the top spot for volume. I’m extremely interested to see how these bluechip projects pivot to v2.0
Seipex Founder’s Pass pumps managed a few transaction this week which gave them the #7 spot, given that their collection is priced well.
The SEI Whales is the most surprising project here. Also since 9 listed is actually pretty low. Although I would still take caution with aping into this one as I’m not too familiar with them nor do I see them on my feed.
Dob still consistently one of the top volume collections for $SEI. Seems like branding projects are holding a lot of mindshare.
An interesting metric to look at is “listed count” on the righthand column. The lower it is, the less sales needed for price to rise.
I am not worried despite the lack of activity and volume in our ecosystem. Rotators will eventually find their way to $SEI. The best thing to do now is to place your chips on builders and position yourself for the high influx of liquidity that will come with V2.
SEI Spotlight of the Week
Well-Deserved recognition as well to @AttentionToDe12 for helping us gather some of the data below. He is our main researcher at SoralisIO.
Batch 89 SEI: [Free-Mint]
Art Project, Free Mint.
Why?
Their artist, Midas, is known around the SEI community for making good fan art which gets him WLs for NFT projects.
This is a very straightforward project being incubated by S3 Labs. (who are a bunch of team members from BullsonSEI)
No Discord nor promises, purely art.
All hand drawn (on paper) then scanned to trurn digital.
Midas has been in crypto since 2020 and has been sketching since he was a young student.
I personally think that the art is really cool and I’m always willing to support art if the price is right. In this case, launch is free.
If you like the art, it might be a good idea to support the project. We support artists here in the red chain.
Founder + Artist — https://x.com/Midas0x_13
Socials/Portfolio: https://twitter.com/Batch89_Sei
SEIlluminati: [Post Mint]
30 SEI FP
Community centered project focusing on alpha.
Why?
SEIlluminati is a pure alpha group that focuses on profit generating here on SEI.
They are led by NFTSammy who has shown great success through his alpha calls with a 95% success rate.
He’s doxxed on LinkedIn which is a huge + on trust for the holders.
Holders claim to have been making a good amount of money from the calls and I expect them to continue to do so.
They also have some more stuff cooking,, like a partnership with SEI Mutants and an art upgrade.
NFTSammy is a gigachad founder whom I’ve previously had the pleasure of working with in the past. I do think that they have formed a really strong community and their raiding game on X is pretty strong compared to other communities on SEI.
If you’re looking for a community centered project on SEI, I do think SEIlluminati would be a good place to start
Team: Founder — https://www.x.com/nftsammy_p
Collab Manager — https://x.com/coldtony
Socials: https://www.x.com/seilluminati https://discord.com/invite/seilluminati https://pallet.exchange/collection/seilluminati
SEI Relevant News:
*** V2 is launching on May 27!!! ***
@YakaFinance is set to integrate @CryptoAlgebra into the ecosystem.
@Superslimes is hosting its 5th treasure hunt event.
The staking feature for @dobnfts has been declared a success.
A CW-1155 art collaboration is being launched by @TOSHIS_Sei and @OrbitersNFT.
@SeiTools has gone live on Pallet Exchange.
@CappysNFT has introduced the first self-service, permissionless staking app on SEI.
@TheColonyNFT__ is developing the ColonyDAO aggregator.
@duckgang_com is integrating a new GameFi experience on SEI.
@seiyansnft is gearing up for the launch of its upcoming 404 collection, with the Telegram group now open.
@ALIVE1111nfts has exceeded 30k SEI in trading volume this week.
@OutlinesSEI is set to release their second trading card on May 31st.
@TheSeiWhales has completed the Hunters art with new previews available.
The community hub for @SeiMutants is now active on the main net, offering customization and enhancements for mutants.
@StraightOutaSei is launching a music collaboration featuring three pieces with @nwnmusic.
@SeiFiNFT has launched a shuffle betting platform.
@seilluminati has unveiled previews of new art, with more details to come.
@webump_ reported over 15k SEI in volume with just 57 NFTs listed.
@SeiMutants has achieved a new all-time high.
That’s all. Redmilio.